Holger Zschaepitz

30, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where long-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply again. But nominal bond yields have not dropped by nearly as much. In plain English: investors are now demanding higher real returns to compensate for Germany’s rising economic risks.

https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/2060742994752409802

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

15, July #Merzomat, #TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where Berlin...

Good Morning from Germany, where Berlin is trying to cool the Commerzbank drama: Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Germany is not blocking a UniCredit takeover – only rejecting the way the Italian lender approached the bank. “We have never attempted to do so,” Merz says in Summer Press Conference. “We have only ever said that the way Commerzbank was approached does not have our approval.” Translation: no veto, but no blessing either.

#Merzomat, #TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

11, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where the fiscal Zeitenwende is getting bigger...

Good Morning from Germany, where the fiscal Zeitenwende is getting bigger. Berlin now plans >€1tn in new federal debt for 2026-30, w/annual borrowing >€200bn from 2027. Defense spending is set to climb toward 4% of GDP, while interest costs could jump from €30bn to >€80bn by 2030. The 2027 budget gap is closed – but the bill is merely pushed into the future. (via DB)

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

08, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Germany is losing speed...

Germany is losing speed: the IMF cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.7% and 2027 to 1.0% (-0.2pp). That leaves Europe’s engine behind the US (2.3%) and China (4.6%), and barely ahead of France (0.6%) as the energy shock bites.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

08, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from #Germany...

Good Morning from #Germany, where the AI boom has barely delivered any upside; yet an AI bust could still tip the economy into recession. Acc to BBG Economics, Germany could see a hit of 1.2% of annual GDP in 2027, given their trade and financial linkages w/US. No boom, but still the bust.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

06, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where Berlin’s debt tab is surging...

Good Morning from Germany, where Berlin’s debt tab is surging. Federal interest payments are set to jump to nearly €42bn next year from just over €31bn this year and could hit €80bn by 2030. That’s money spent on the past, not invested in future growth.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

03, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the nest is getting harder to leave: 30% of 25-year-olds still lived w/their parents in 2025, up from 28% in 2022-24. Sons stay longer (36%) than daughters (23%), and 77% of 25-34s at home are employed.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

02, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the reform hammer is finally swinging: govt agreed on one of the biggest reform packages in decades – €10bn tax relief, pension overhaul, more flexible labour laws & less red tape. Investors barely noticed, but the Germany story is getting real. German index ETFs saw net outflows in Q2.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

01, July #TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the fertility rate has fallen to 1.32 children per woman, the lowest since 1996. Only 654,241 babies were born in 2025, the fewest in postwar history. Even Lower Saxony, Germany’s most fertile state, slipped below 1.4.

#TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz

30, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from #Germany...

Good Morning from #Germany, where capital is voting w/its feet: net investment is just 0.2% of GDP, new projects cost 40%–250% more than at the world’s best sites, and permits take 200 days. The old industrial powerhouse is in maintenance mode: too expensive, too slow, and underinvesting in its future.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

29, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where AI could become the productivity lifeline for an aging economy: Germany’s working-age population may shrink by up to 25% by 2070, while AI could add 0.2-0.7pp to annual growth. Less sci-fi, more invoices, routes & admin automation. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-29/german-ai-rollout-offers-300-billion-fix-for-worker-shortage?sref=R17xFhjo

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

27, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where...

Good Morning from Germany, where the power market just delivered a lesson in renewable volatility. Despite sunshine and record solar output, electricity prices surged >€700/MWh this week. Tuesday’s avg was still >€200/MWh. Why? Wind generation collapsed. Plenty of sun. Almost no wind. Costly electricity.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

26, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where the heatwave...

Good Morning from Germany, where the heatwave is already hitting the country’s economic arteries. Rhine water levels at Kaub – a key bottleneck on Europe’s industrial waterway – have fallen 0.20m in just 3 days to around 0.83m, the lowest since April 2025. That matters: the Rhine is a crucial transport route for Germany’s chemical industry, including BASF, Covestro and Evonik. Low water can restrict barge loads, raise logistics risks and disrupt supply chains. For now, barge rates to Basel are still flat – but the heat is on.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

18, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where Trump is ...

Good Morning from Germany, where Trump is inspiring a new tariff mood. Berlin is increasingly open to an EU version of Section 301 to counter China’s “unfair trade practices.” The backdrop: Germany’s rolling 12mth bilateral trade deficit w/China has ballooned to ~€100bn; a record. Free-trade Germany is turning protectionist.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

17, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Hello from Germany, where the auto...

Hello from Germany, where the auto crisis just deepened. BMW has issued a major profit warning, implying a profit drop of >60%. Its EBIT margin is now expected at just 1–3%; a shocking level for a premium automaker that once stood for double-digit profitability. This comes only a day after VW executives reportedly described their own company as facing an existential threat, according to Manager Magazin. BMW is now worth less <€40bn.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

16, June #TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where demographics...

Good Morning from Germany, where demographics are biting: Population shrank by 110k to 83.5mln in 2025; the first decline since 2011, leaving aside the coronavirus year of 2020. Net migration of 235k wasn’t enough to offset a birth deficit of 352k. Only the 60-79 age group is still growing.

#TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz

14, June #TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where the entire Dax – the 40 largest listed companies – is barely bigger than SpaceX, now valued at $2.1tn. One rocket company versus corporate Germany.

#TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

12, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where corporate insolvencies keep climbing: Courts registered 2,308 business bankruptcies in March 2026, up 15.8% YoY, and highest since 2013. Consumer insolvencies jumped even more sharply, by 18.9%. The squeeze on Germany’s economy is far from over.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

09, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Hello from Germany…

Hello from Germany, where foreign trade remains stuck in a rut. The trade surplus narrowed from €14.7bn in March to €14.5bn in April, its lowest level since Nov2025, as imports rose 1.2% MoM and outpaced exports, which increased by 0.9% MoM.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

08, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany where factory orders fell more than expected in April due to the automotive industry and electrical equipment, adding to concerns that Europe’s largest economy could contract in the second quarter. New orders in the German manufacturing sector fell by 3.8% in April MoM, thereby erasing most of the growth recorded in March. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/ 2026-06-08/german-factory-orders-fell-more-than-expected-in-april-on-cars?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

01, June #GrenzPolitik

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where more and more German citizens are leaving the country. Last year, 288,579 Germans moved abroad, up from 270,000 the year before – a fresh record. The number of Germans moving back to Germany rose slightly, from 189,000 to 192,000. But the net balance still worsened to almost -97,000. That is the 2nd-highest net outflow of German citizens in the country’s history. Only 2016 was worse, at -135,000.

#GrenzPolitik

Holger Zschaepitz

31, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, which is also taking a hit on the stock markets. Following the latest MSCI World rebalancing, Germany has lost yet another constituent: LEG Immobilien. That leaves the country with only just over 50 companies in the index. Germany’s weight in the MSCI World has now shrunk to a meagre 2.14% – despite the country still accounting for ~4% of global GDP.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

29, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where headline inflation slowed to 2.6% YoY in May from 2.9% in April, helped by the fuel-tax rebate. But the rise in core inflation to 2.5% from 2.3% shows that underlying price pressures remain stubborn. Disinflation at the surface, stickiness underneath.

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Holger Zschaepitz

28, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where...

Good Morning from Germany, where the welfare state keeps expanding: Govt cash social benefits jumped 5.9% in 2025 to €751.2bn; far above the long-term avg of 3.4%. Pensions hit €417.9bn, jobless benefits surged 19.1%, while Bürgergeld fell slightly. Demography is destiny.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

23, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where the road to socialism is paved with ever-rising govt consumption. Since 1999, state consumption is up 63%, while GDP has risen only 31% and capital investment a meagre 16%. The public sector keeps expanding, but the investment base is stagnating. Germany is becoming less of a market economy and more of a state-led redistribution machine.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

19, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Guten Morgen aus Deutschland…

Guten Morgen aus Deutschland, wo der Arbeitsmarkt an Schwung verliert. Die Beschäftigung ist im 1. Quartal 2026 erneut gesunken. Der Schmerz konzentriert sich auf Industrie und Bauwesen, wo die Jobverluste die bescheidenen Zuwächse im Dienstleistungssektor bei Weitem übersteigen. Die große Ausnahme: Öffentliche Dienste, Bildung und Gesundheitswesen haben im 1. Quartal immerhin 181.000 neue Jobs geschaffen, ein Plus von 1,5 % im Vergleich zum Vorjahr. Auffällige Divergenz: Während die Beschäftigung in Deutschland schrumpft, steigt sie im EU- und Eurozonen-Raum weiterhin.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

18, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where borrowing is getting more expensive as bond yields keep rising. Long-term yields have climbed to their highest level since 2011.

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Holger Zschaepitz

14, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where wholesale prices have jumped 6.3% YoY; the steepest rise since Feb 2023. That is a worrying signal for consumers, b/c food prices often follow wholesale costs with a delay.

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Holger Zschaepitz

12, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where house prices are rising slightly again – but only in nominal terms. After adjusting for inflation, there is still little sign of a broad-based recovery. The picture is highly uneven. New-build prices are rising, partly b/c construction costs remain elevated. In April, the Europace New Build Index increased by 1% MoM, reaching a new ATH. Existing homes, by contrast, edged lower, acc to the Europace Existing Homes Index, w/performance varying significantly by region. Year on year, price growth for both new builds and existing homes remains well below Germany’s inflation rate of 2.9%. In real terms, the housing market is therefore still largely moving sideways.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

11, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, which appears to be heading towards stagflation. Consensus GDP forecasts for 2026 have been revised down from more than 1% to just 0.66%, while inflation forecasts have climbed above 2.7%. Against this backdrop, the ECB is now expected to raise interest rates twice – at least, that is what markets are pricing in.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

07, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where...

Good Morning from Germany, where taxes and social security contributions now take almost half of the avg gross salary. About 14% goes to income taxes, while roughly 35% is spent on non-wage labor costs such as pensions, health insurance, and unemployment insurance. Among developed countries, only Belgium has a higher overall burden.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

05, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where deeply negative energy prices due to solar glut are forcing a rethink of the energy transition, w/Economy Minister calling to end subsidies for excess renewable electricity after costs ran into the tens of millions last weekend alone. https://welt.de/wirtschaft/plu s69f8f1ea23e6b3dbf3c99007/wirtschaftsrat-der-cdu-reiche-fordert-energiewende-schlussstrich-kein-geld-mehr-fuer-ueberfluessigen-oekostrom.html

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

02, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where electricity prices are now regularly falling below zero around midday. On May 1, they even dropped to the floor at -49.999 cents per kilowatt hour. The reason is simple: we are generating more solar power than we can use or store. As a result, Germany has to cover the gap between these negative market prices and the guaranteed feed-in tariffs paid to producers—an expensive outcome. These prices are a clear indication of the utterly disastrous energy transition.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

01, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where econ stagnation is increasingly weighing on the labor market, despite demographic change. In April, the unemployment rate rose to 6.4%, and the seasonally adj number of unemployed climbed above 3 million for 1st time since 2011. This comes even though ~500k workers leave the labor force each year.

#WirtschaftWackelt

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