Holger Zschaepitz

27, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where...

Good Morning from Germany, where the power market just delivered a lesson in renewable volatility. Despite sunshine and record solar output, electricity prices surged >€700/MWh this week. Tuesday’s avg was still >€200/MWh. Why? Wind generation collapsed. Plenty of sun. Almost no wind. Costly electricity.

https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/2070778089290793453

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

29, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where AI could become the productivity lifeline for an aging economy: Germany’s working-age population may shrink by up to 25% by 2070, while AI could add 0.2-0.7pp to annual growth. Less sci-fi, more invoices, routes & admin automation. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-29/german-ai-rollout-offers-300-billion-fix-for-worker-shortage?sref=R17xFhjo

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Holger Zschaepitz

26, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where the heatwave...

Good Morning from Germany, where the heatwave is already hitting the country’s economic arteries. Rhine water levels at Kaub – a key bottleneck on Europe’s industrial waterway – have fallen 0.20m in just 3 days to around 0.83m, the lowest since April 2025. That matters: the Rhine is a crucial transport route for Germany’s chemical industry, including BASF, Covestro and Evonik. Low water can restrict barge loads, raise logistics risks and disrupt supply chains. For now, barge rates to Basel are still flat – but the heat is on.

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Holger Zschaepitz

18, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where Trump is ...

Good Morning from Germany, where Trump is inspiring a new tariff mood. Berlin is increasingly open to an EU version of Section 301 to counter China’s “unfair trade practices.” The backdrop: Germany’s rolling 12mth bilateral trade deficit w/China has ballooned to ~€100bn; a record. Free-trade Germany is turning protectionist.

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Holger Zschaepitz

17, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Hello from Germany, where the auto...

Hello from Germany, where the auto crisis just deepened. BMW has issued a major profit warning, implying a profit drop of >60%. Its EBIT margin is now expected at just 1–3%; a shocking level for a premium automaker that once stood for double-digit profitability. This comes only a day after VW executives reportedly described their own company as facing an existential threat, according to Manager Magazin. BMW is now worth less <€40bn.

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Holger Zschaepitz

16, June #TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where demographics...

Good Morning from Germany, where demographics are biting: Population shrank by 110k to 83.5mln in 2025; the first decline since 2011, leaving aside the coronavirus year of 2020. Net migration of 235k wasn’t enough to offset a birth deficit of 352k. Only the 60-79 age group is still growing.

#TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz

14, June #TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where the entire Dax – the 40 largest listed companies – is barely bigger than SpaceX, now valued at $2.1tn. One rocket company versus corporate Germany.

#TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

12, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where corporate insolvencies keep climbing: Courts registered 2,308 business bankruptcies in March 2026, up 15.8% YoY, and highest since 2013. Consumer insolvencies jumped even more sharply, by 18.9%. The squeeze on Germany’s economy is far from over.

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Holger Zschaepitz

09, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Hello from Germany…

Hello from Germany, where foreign trade remains stuck in a rut. The trade surplus narrowed from €14.7bn in March to €14.5bn in April, its lowest level since Nov2025, as imports rose 1.2% MoM and outpaced exports, which increased by 0.9% MoM.

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Holger Zschaepitz

08, June #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany where factory orders fell more than expected in April due to the automotive industry and electrical equipment, adding to concerns that Europe’s largest economy could contract in the second quarter. New orders in the German manufacturing sector fell by 3.8% in April MoM, thereby erasing most of the growth recorded in March. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/ 2026-06-08/german-factory-orders-fell-more-than-expected-in-april-on-cars?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

01, June #GrenzPolitik

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where more and more German citizens are leaving the country. Last year, 288,579 Germans moved abroad, up from 270,000 the year before – a fresh record. The number of Germans moving back to Germany rose slightly, from 189,000 to 192,000. But the net balance still worsened to almost -97,000. That is the 2nd-highest net outflow of German citizens in the country’s history. Only 2016 was worse, at -135,000.

#GrenzPolitik

Holger Zschaepitz

31, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, which is also taking a hit on the stock markets. Following the latest MSCI World rebalancing, Germany has lost yet another constituent: LEG Immobilien. That leaves the country with only just over 50 companies in the index. Germany’s weight in the MSCI World has now shrunk to a meagre 2.14% – despite the country still accounting for ~4% of global GDP.

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Holger Zschaepitz

30, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where long-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply again. But nominal bond yields have not dropped by nearly as much. In plain English: investors are now demanding higher real returns to compensate for Germany’s rising economic risks.

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Holger Zschaepitz

29, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where headline inflation slowed to 2.6% YoY in May from 2.9% in April, helped by the fuel-tax rebate. But the rise in core inflation to 2.5% from 2.3% shows that underlying price pressures remain stubborn. Disinflation at the surface, stickiness underneath.

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Holger Zschaepitz

28, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where...

Good Morning from Germany, where the welfare state keeps expanding: Govt cash social benefits jumped 5.9% in 2025 to €751.2bn; far above the long-term avg of 3.4%. Pensions hit €417.9bn, jobless benefits surged 19.1%, while Bürgergeld fell slightly. Demography is destiny.

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Holger Zschaepitz

23, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where the road to socialism is paved with ever-rising govt consumption. Since 1999, state consumption is up 63%, while GDP has risen only 31% and capital investment a meagre 16%. The public sector keeps expanding, but the investment base is stagnating. Germany is becoming less of a market economy and more of a state-led redistribution machine.

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Holger Zschaepitz

19, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Guten Morgen aus Deutschland…

Guten Morgen aus Deutschland, wo der Arbeitsmarkt an Schwung verliert. Die Beschäftigung ist im 1. Quartal 2026 erneut gesunken. Der Schmerz konzentriert sich auf Industrie und Bauwesen, wo die Jobverluste die bescheidenen Zuwächse im Dienstleistungssektor bei Weitem übersteigen. Die große Ausnahme: Öffentliche Dienste, Bildung und Gesundheitswesen haben im 1. Quartal immerhin 181.000 neue Jobs geschaffen, ein Plus von 1,5 % im Vergleich zum Vorjahr. Auffällige Divergenz: Während die Beschäftigung in Deutschland schrumpft, steigt sie im EU- und Eurozonen-Raum weiterhin.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

18, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where borrowing is getting more expensive as bond yields keep rising. Long-term yields have climbed to their highest level since 2011.

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Holger Zschaepitz

14, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where wholesale prices have jumped 6.3% YoY; the steepest rise since Feb 2023. That is a worrying signal for consumers, b/c food prices often follow wholesale costs with a delay.

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Holger Zschaepitz

12, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where house prices are rising slightly again – but only in nominal terms. After adjusting for inflation, there is still little sign of a broad-based recovery. The picture is highly uneven. New-build prices are rising, partly b/c construction costs remain elevated. In April, the Europace New Build Index increased by 1% MoM, reaching a new ATH. Existing homes, by contrast, edged lower, acc to the Europace Existing Homes Index, w/performance varying significantly by region. Year on year, price growth for both new builds and existing homes remains well below Germany’s inflation rate of 2.9%. In real terms, the housing market is therefore still largely moving sideways.

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Holger Zschaepitz

11, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, which appears to be heading towards stagflation. Consensus GDP forecasts for 2026 have been revised down from more than 1% to just 0.66%, while inflation forecasts have climbed above 2.7%. Against this backdrop, the ECB is now expected to raise interest rates twice – at least, that is what markets are pricing in.

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Holger Zschaepitz

07, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where...

Good Morning from Germany, where taxes and social security contributions now take almost half of the avg gross salary. About 14% goes to income taxes, while roughly 35% is spent on non-wage labor costs such as pensions, health insurance, and unemployment insurance. Among developed countries, only Belgium has a higher overall burden.

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Holger Zschaepitz

05, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where deeply negative energy prices due to solar glut are forcing a rethink of the energy transition, w/Economy Minister calling to end subsidies for excess renewable electricity after costs ran into the tens of millions last weekend alone. https://welt.de/wirtschaft/plu s69f8f1ea23e6b3dbf3c99007/wirtschaftsrat-der-cdu-reiche-fordert-energiewende-schlussstrich-kein-geld-mehr-fuer-ueberfluessigen-oekostrom.html

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Holger Zschaepitz

02, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where electricity prices are now regularly falling below zero around midday. On May 1, they even dropped to the floor at -49.999 cents per kilowatt hour. The reason is simple: we are generating more solar power than we can use or store. As a result, Germany has to cover the gap between these negative market prices and the guaranteed feed-in tariffs paid to producers—an expensive outcome. These prices are a clear indication of the utterly disastrous energy transition.

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Holger Zschaepitz

01, May #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where econ stagnation is increasingly weighing on the labor market, despite demographic change. In April, the unemployment rate rose to 6.4%, and the seasonally adj number of unemployed climbed above 3 million for 1st time since 2011. This comes even though ~500k workers leave the labor force each year.

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Holger Zschaepitz

27, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where fear is back in the economy – and recovery hopes are fading. War in Iran and rising inflation fears are crushing consumer confidence. GfK consumer climate fell to -33.3, the lowest since Feb2023. Willingness to spend is at a 2y low, and 42% plan to cut spending.

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Holger Zschaepitz

26, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where households are footing the bill for the energy transition. The benchmark 1y-ahead power price is back near €100/MWh, or 10c/kWh, even though spot prices briefly turned negative. Add 23c in charges and levies, and households end up paying more than 30c/kWh.

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Holger Zschaepitz

25, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where the economy may slip back into contraction in Q2. The latest leading indicators point that way. Deutsche Bank now expects GDP to fall by 0.2% in Q2 and has cut its full-year growth forecast in half to 0.5%. The consensus still sees a small 0.15% increase in Q2, but that estimate is dropping quickly.

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Holger Zschaepitz

23, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where...

Good Morning from Germany, where private-sector activity unexpectedly shrank as the Iran war triggered the steepest drop in the services sector in more than three years. S&P's Composite German PMI fell to 48.3 in April, down from 51.9 in March. That pushed it below the 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction, for 1st time since May 2025. Analysts polled by BBG had expected only a smaller decline, to 51.2. The sharp fall in the services PMI likely reflects the surge in uncertainty following the Iran war. Since this index is heavily driven by domestic demand, it suggests that consumers have become much more cautious.

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Holger Zschaepitz

19, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Hello from Germany, which is steadily…

Hello from Germany, which is steadily drifting toward socialism. Since 2025, government spending ratio has exceeded 50% of GDP, and the IMF expects it to climb above 52% in the coming years and stay above 51% until 2031.

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Holger Zschaepitz

12, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where consensus growth forecasts…

Good Morning from Germany, where consensus growth forecasts, which had been remarkably slow to change, are now starting to drift lower. Growth of just 0.8% is now expected for this year, and 1.4% for 2027. Bank of America is the most pessimistic on this year, forecasting growth of just 0.3%, while Credit Agricole is the most pessimistic on next year, at 0.8%.

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Holger Zschaepitz

11, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, which is weighing a strategic natural gas reserve to protect supplies in a worst-case crisis. The proposed emergency reserve would total ~24TWh, equal to ~10% of the country’s gas storage capacity. In the event of a complete import cutoff, it could keep households and businesses supplied for roughly 2 weeks in a normal winter, or 1 week in an icy one. The one-off cost is estimated at €500mln to €1.5bn. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/ 2026-04-09/germany-fleshes-out-emergency-gas-reserve-plan-to-deflect-shocks?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter?sref=R17xFhjo

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Holger Zschaepitz

10, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from #Germany where the social contribution…

Good Morning from #Germany where the social contribution burden keeps rising. A new study says the Social Contribution Memorial Day shifts to April 11 in 2026, 2 days later than a year earlier, mainly due to higher health and long-term care costs. The broader social spending ratio has climbed to 31.2% of GDP, while the welfare state’s implicit debt now stands at 204.9% of GDP.

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Holger Zschaepitz

08, April #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany…

Good Morning from Germany, where industry was showing little sign of recovery even before the war. Factory orders rose just 0.9% in Feb MoM, missing expectations. Excl volatile large orders, demand was up a stronger 3.5%. Still, a downward revision to January means the core trend remains largely sideways, w/no convincing recovery yet in sight.

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