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Michael A. Arouet: This is eye-opening...
Michael A. Arouet
17, October #WirtschaftWackelt

Michael A. Arouet: This is eye-opening...

This is eye-opening. We've all heard Germany has stagnated for seven years, but closer look shows it's even much worse. Germany's real economy is in severe recession, the country „only“ stagnates overall due to inflated government spending financed by more debt. Germany still has some room to issue more debt, but this path leads straight to economic demise. It will become another failed left country like France, with an absurd state spending ratio, anemic structural growth, and a rapidly rising debt and interest burden. This is an epic failure of the German political class on both sides of the spectrum. They chose to mask the deepest economic crisis since WWII with more debt and inflated government spending instead of pushing long-overdue structural reforms. Isn’t that highly irresponsible? Why are they doing that?
Michael A. Arouet: This is eye-opening...
https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/2111467458167017901
#WirtschaftWackelt
Michael A. Arouet: This is really eye-opening...
Michael A. Arouet
10, October #WirtschaftWackelt

Michael A. Arouet: This is really eye-opening...

This is really eye-opening. Most Germans don’t yet understand what is coming. Germany has gone from a global manufacturing superpower to an expensive, unproductive, inefficient sick man of Europe. No one in Europe works fewer hours per year than the Germans. Mentally stuck in the last century, they waste time on bureaucracy, regulations, unions and works councils, while others focus on productivity and efficiency. And then the left tells them every day that they don’t need to work harder, that “tax the rich” will solve the problem instead. Germany will buy a few years with more debt to mask its decline, left laziness and complacency. This won’t last forever. The current wave of weekly insolvencies and mass layoffs will one day feel like a walk in the park compared with what is coming. Prosperity is not granted forever.
#WirtschaftWackelt
Michael A. Arouet: France is already paying crisis-era...
Michael A. Arouet
05, October #TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

Michael A. Arouet: France is already paying crisis-era...

France is already paying crisis-era rates to borrow, but the French left’s current reaction to the emerging debt crisis makes it even scarier. Their answers make the reasons for those rates more credible. Left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has seriously proposed a sovereign default on the hundreds of billions held by the Banque de France. Relabeling it a freeze or a zero-coupon perpetual does not change the substance, a default on debt the Eurosystem already holds. This would push French yields on new debt from 5% probably well above 10% going forward, and take Italian, Spanish and Belgian sovereign debt yields with them. The rest of the left is a little less theatrical, but not much more useful. They seriously threaten to bring down a government over €54 billion in savings and plan street blockades while the interest bill rises. This would clearly calm the markets. The Socialists, as always, talk about higher taxes in a country with one of the highest tax burdens, and most taxes in the world, already throttling growth and investment. Absolutely no one on that side offers a path that stabilizes the debt ratio by addressing the absurd French pension system and grotesque state spending. Refusal is treated as a program. If it wasn’t so sad to watch, it would be quite funny.
#TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt
Michael A. Arouet: Isn’t it hilarious that leftists...
Michael A. Arouet
28, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Michael A. Arouet: Isn’t it hilarious that leftists...

Isn’t it hilarious that leftists keep raising income-tax rates and introducing wealth taxes, then always act surprised when revenues fall? When the state treats success as a piggy bank, the mobile simply leave and those who stay stop working hard, innovating, and creating jobs. France tried it, the wealth tax raised little and triggered an exodus of millionaires, capital, income taxes, and the jobs that went with them. Sweden dropped its wealth tax for the same reasons: high administration costs, valuation disputes, and people voting with their feet. A wealth tax is especially counterproductive, it damages revenues, jobs, and growth. It hits unrealized gains, illiquid businesses, and people whose “wealth” is a company that employs others and drives innovation. Punish the builder and you lose not just one taxpayer but the jobs, prosperity, and future tax base that never get created. Why is this so hard for leftists to grasp? Why are they so blinded by envy and their own failure in life?
#WirtschaftWackelt
Michael A. Arouet: Italy, Spain, Germany...
Michael A. Arouet
19, September #WirtschaftWackelt, #GrenzPolitik

Michael A. Arouet: Italy, Spain, Germany...

Italy, Spain, Germany and some other European countries built some of the world’s most solid pension systems. They are now running out of children. Fertility sits around 1.1–1.4. Italy and Spain are among the oldest large nations on earth. The ratio of workers to retirees is collapsing. Pensions and healthcare are pay-as-you-go systems designed for a pyramid, not an inverted one. Mass immigration is sold as the easy patch, but is it? Young arrivals can delay the crunch for a few years if they work and pay in. Large inflows into welfare, informal work or low-productivity jobs do the opposite: they raise immediate fiscal costs, strain housing, healthcare and schools, and add future claimants who will also grow old. Low-skill migration does not restore the contributor-to-beneficiary ratio these systems urgently need. It often worsens the net fiscal picture over a lifetime while leaving the native birth collapse untouched. What makes it even worse, competition for entry level jobs in countries with high youth unemployment like Spain makes it even harder for young people to find a job and start a family. You cannot import a working-age population forever without caring about background and integration. That creates two-tier societies that erode the solidarity the welfare state depends on. The honest conversation is harder: why families of two or three children became economically and culturally rare, and why housing, work and time no longer line up with having kids? Mass immigration of the current mix is a delay tactic. Is it the right solution though?
#WirtschaftWackelt, #GrenzPolitik
Michael A. Arouet: Believe it or not...
Michael A. Arouet
11, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Michael A. Arouet: Believe it or not...

Believe it or not, but France charges a child €58k to inherit a €400k family home from his mother. Italy, Spain, Germany, the UK, Poland, Portugal: €0. United States: $0. One country treats a modest family home like a taxable windfall. The others treat it as what it is: a parent passing on what they already paid tax on all their life to a child. You can't call it solidarity, you can't call it fairness. It is stealing from the dead. Prove me wrong.
#WirtschaftWackelt