Holger Zschaepitz

30, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: ENERGY STRIKES BACK...

ENERGY STRIKES BACK after temporary fuel-price relief expired! German #inflation jumped to a 3mth high of 2.8% in July, driven by an 8.3% surge in energy prices. Core inflation eased to 2.4%, but headline spike combined w/stronger GDP keeps pressure on the ECB ahead of September.

https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/2082801910478684179

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

16, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the homeownership dream is slipping away. The official homeownership rate has plunged to just 41.9%, from 46.5% in 2018. Germany now sits at the bottom of the EU league table, vs 68.4% EU avg, 61.2% in France and 70%+ in Italy and Spain. The reasons: construction costs have surged 160% since 2000 vs just 64% for consumer prices, while higher mortgage rates, steep transaction costs and fading state support have pushed the dream of owning a home ever further out of reach.

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Holger Zschaepitz

15, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the global bond selloff is hitting hard. The 10y Bund yield has surged to 3.57%, the highest since 2009. Germany’s benchmark borrowing cost is now ~440bps above its 2020 low of -0.86%. The era of free money is becoming a distant memory.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

14, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the AAA rating is becoming a growth bet. Rating agency Scope sees potential growth at just 0.8% vs 1.6% for AAA peers and debt rising from 63.5% of GDP in 2025 to ~83% by 2036. If growth slips to 0.4% and borrowing costs rise 50bp, debt nears 90%.

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Holger Zschaepitz

13, September #Merzomat, #TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where Chancellor Friedrich Merz is fighting to keep his job. After the CDU’s debacle in Saxony-Anhalt, weak national polls and open rebellion inside his own party, pressure is mounting fast. Next Sunday could become a make-or-break moment: the CDU is polling at just 7% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, versus 37% for the AfD. Merz insists: “Giving up is not an option.” But Germany’s chancellor is now fighting not only for his reform agenda but for his political survival.

#Merzomat, #TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz

11, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where gasoline prices have hit a fresh record: €2.33/litre on average. The pain at the pump is being driven by a triple whammy of higher crude oil prices, surging refinery margins (crack spreads) and higher taxes & levies. Energy inflation is back.

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Holger Zschaepitz

10, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning on ECB Day...

Good Morning on ECB Day from Germany, where monetary policy looks far too loose by the Taylor Rule. With inflation at 2.9%, the model puts the appropriate rate at 4.65% vs the ECB’s current 2.40% Main Refi Rate; a whopping 225bps gap. Even after the expected 25bp hike today, rates would still be ~200bp too low. Another hike later this year would barely change the picture. Meanwhile, German 10y inflation expectations have climbed to 2.23%, above the ECB’s 2% target. The message for Lagarde: inflation risks remain very much alive.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

08, September #TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where PISA scores hit record lows in science, reading & math; still just above OECD avg. Since 2015: Sci 509→486, Read 509→465, Math 506→464. Huge dispersion: science 521 non-immigrant vs 438 immigrant; social gap 125pts vs 85 OECD. A bad omen for future potential growth.

#TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz

05, September #TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where young women are in short supply in the East. Among 18–29-year-olds, there are just 856 women per 1,000 men in Saxony-Anhalt, 862 in Brandenburg and 867 in Thuringia; the biggest gender gaps nationwide. One legacy: female east-to-west migration.

#TrendHysterie

Holger Zschaepitz

03, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where electricity prices are flashing another warning sign. The 1y forward power price – a key benchmark for household suppliers’ procurement costs – has jumped to €122/MWh, the highest since 2023. The culprit: surging gas prices. Under Europe’s merit-order system, gas plants often set the marginal power price.

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Holger Zschaepitz

01, September #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the benchmark index Dax has just entered its historically worst month. Since 1988, September has delivered an avg return of -2.0%, w/gains in only 36% of years, the lowest hit rate of any month. It is also the most volatile month. September curse is real.

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Holger Zschaepitz

31, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where borrowing costs keep climbing. The 10y Bund yield has risen to 3.31%, its highest level since 2011, as bond markets brace for the latest inflation data. Germany’s benchmark yield is now just ~18bps below its 2011 peak of 3.49%. The era of cheap money feels increasingly distant.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

30, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the great inheritance wave is turning into a tax bonanza: inheritance & gift tax assessments surged 61% to a record €21.4bn in 2025. The main driver: tax on wealth transfers above €20mln jumped 147%. And the inheritance divide remains huge: just 2% of inheritance-tax revenue is generated in eastern Germany.

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Holger Zschaepitz

29, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the labor market is flashing a warning: seasonally adjusted unemployment has climbed to 2.996mln, just shy of 3mln. The last time Germany had 3mln+ seasonally adjusted unemployed was in 2011. Employment is down 223k YoY.

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Holger Zschaepitz

26, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where debt is getting expensive fast. Berlin just paid 3.68% at its latest long-dated bond auction. Meanwhile, the H1 budget deficit nearly doubled to €71.3bn, or 3.1% of GDP, while interest costs jumped 11.6% to €27.3bn. Germany’s fiscal free lunch is over.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

24, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where business investment is the weakest in the entire G7. Since 2021, investment has essentially stagnated, while the US is powering ahead, driven by the AI boom. By 2028, US real business investment could be up 40%, while Germany remains the G7 laggard. Europe’s investment gap is becoming a growth gap. https://ft.com/content/77b94c 4a-4b4b-4983-9138-7db6926150f4?syn-25a6b1a6=1

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

22, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where 30y Bund yields are on course to 4% as the world rediscovers the price of fiscal excess. US debt has topped $40tn and could hit $50tn by 2029 if the current pace continues.

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Holger Zschaepitz

20, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the fiscal Zeitenwende comes with a price tag. Germany just sold €4bn of 30y Bunds at 3.783%, highest borrowing cost since 2011. And supply is only ramping up: 2027 net financing needs are seen at €204bn, w/record net Bund issuance of €163bn. The era of free money is over. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/ 2026-08-18/germany-is-set-to-sell-30-year-bonds-at-highest-yield-since-2011?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

18, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the China shock is becoming a serious industrial threat. Germany’s 12mth rolling trade deficit w/China has blown out to a record €102bn. At the same time, China is exporting more than 1mn cars a month, while weak domestic demand forces its industrial overcapacity onto world markets. Germany once supplied China w/cars and machinery. Increasingly, the flow is reversing.

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Holger Zschaepitz

17, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the country risks running short of gas this winter if storage tanks aren’t filled much faster. They are just 49.7% full, the lowest ever for this time of year and ~17ppts below 2025. At the current injection pace, Germany could enter the heating season near 60%. Meanwhile, European gas trades above €62/MWh. LNG terminals reduce the risk but leave little buffer for a cold winter or supply disruption. Germany’s energy insurance is getting expensive again.

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Holger Zschaepitz

15, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the bond market is sending an unmistakable message: 30y Bund yields have climbed to 3.73%, the highest level since 2011. Germany is now paying borrowing costs last seen during the euro-crisis era. The age of ultra-cheap money is history.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

14, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the prosperity gap w/America keeps widening. PPP GDP/capita: US $90,027, Germany $75,407, Eurozone $67,483. The last European hope: the median. But even that disappoints. OECD median disposable household income: US $46.6k vs Germany $36.2k. So much for the comforting thesis that America only looks richer b/c its billionaires distort the average.

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Holger Zschaepitz

13, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning back from Germany...

Good Morning back from Germany, where the Rhine is running dry and the econ consequences are getting real. The gauge at Kaub has fallen to just 10cm, near record lows. Covestro has now declared force majeure for some products from its Dormagen plant as barges can no longer carry enough cargo. Evonik is also feeling the squeeze, Salzgitter is shifting coal to rail and Uniper reports lower hydro output. One barge can require up to 150 trucks to replace it. Germany’s industrial artery is turning into another supply-chain bottleneck.

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Holger Zschaepitz

04, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the era of free money is over. Germany’s 10y real yield has risen to 1.17%, near its highest since 2011, after spending most of the past decade below zero. Good news for savers, but a much tougher financing regime for borrowers and the state.

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Holger Zschaepitz

02, August #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where GDP may have risen 0.2% in Q2, but the old problem still haunts the economy: weak investment. Exports drove growth, while investment fell again. Since 2019, govt consumption is up a whopping 15%, GDP just 1.6%, BUT capital investment is down >8%.

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Holger Zschaepitz

31, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the manufacturing downturn is now hitting the labor market. The seasonally adj jobless rate rose to 6.4% in July, above the 6.3% forecast and back at levels seen in the pandemic year 2020. Unemployment increased by 6,000.

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Holger Zschaepitz

27, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the old growth model is fading faster than the new one is emerging. Autos, chemicals and machinery remain 15–20% below their pre-Covid peaks, while Goldman Sachs sees IT services (+0.25pp annual growth), defence (+0.1pp) and electrification as Germany's next growth engines.

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Holger Zschaepitz

26, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany...

Good Morning from Germany, where the welfare state now absorbs almost a third of GDP. In 2025, social spending hit €1.43tn, or 32% of output, up from 31.2% in 2024. Last year, benefits rose 5.7%, while nominal GDP grew only 3.3%, meaning the social state is outgrowing the economy.

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Holger Zschaepitz

24, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: OUCH...

OUCH! European gas futures keep surging as the Middle East war widens; up 50% in just one month. Europe’s energy-risk premium is back with a vengeance.

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Holger Zschaepitz

23, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: #ECB opts to keep rates unchanged...

#ECB opts to keep rates unchanged, in line w/expectations. Says uncertainty level remains high. Says inflation impact of energy shock yet to fully play out. (via BBG)

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Holger Zschaepitz

19, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from #Germany...

Good Morning from #Germany, where petrol prices are back >€2 per litre even though Brent crude trades at just €77/bbl. One key reason: European gasoline refining margins have surged to an all-time high this week, widening the gap between crude oil and the pump.

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Holger Zschaepitz

18, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where the state...

Good Morning from Germany, where the state is investing, but companies still aren’t. Public investment has surged to 125% of its 2019 level, while private investment has fallen to 88%. One year after “Made for Germany,” corporate spending is rising, but far too slowly to hit the €631bn target by 2028. Germany is becoming more expensive without becoming more attractive. (HT CEO Table)

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Holger Zschaepitz

17, July #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: The great semiconductor disconnect...

The great semiconductor disconnect: SOX earnings estimates keep climbing to fresh records, while chip stocks are tumbling. The index is now ~20% below its peak even as forward profits hit new highs. Either this is a buying opportunity – or the market knows something analysts don’t.

#WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz

15, July #Merzomat, #TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

Holger Zschaepitz: Good Morning from Germany, where Berlin...

Good Morning from Germany, where Berlin is trying to cool the Commerzbank drama: Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Germany is not blocking a UniCredit takeover – only rejecting the way the Italian lender approached the bank. “We have never attempted to do so,” Merz says in Summer Press Conference. “We have only ever said that the way Commerzbank was approached does not have our approval.” Translation: no veto, but no blessing either.

#Merzomat, #TrendHysterie, #WirtschaftWackelt

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